ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVES@#Cervical cancer is the most common malignant tumor in the female reproductive system worldwide. The recurrence rate for the treated cervical cancer patients is high, which seriously threatens women's lives and health. At present, the risk prediction study of cervical cancer has not been reported. Based on the influencing factors of cervical cancer recurrence, we aim to establish a risk prediction model of cervical cancer recurrence to provide a scientific basis for the prevention and treatment of cervical cancer recurrence.@*METHODS@#A total of 4 358 cervical cancer patients admitted to the Hunan Cancer Hospital from January 1992 to December 2005 were selected as research subjects, and the recurrence of cervical cancer patients after treatment was followed up. Univariate analysis was used to analyze the possible influencing factors. Variables that were significant in univariate analysis or those that were not significant in univariate analysis but may be considered significant were included in multivariate Cox regression analysis to establish a cervical cancer recurrence risk prediction model. Line graphs was used to show the model and it was evaluated by using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis.@*RESULTS@#Univariate analysis showed that the recurrence rates of cervical cancer patients with different age, age of menarche, parity, miscarriage, clinical stage, and treatment method were significantly different (all P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that RR=-0.489×(age≥55 years old)+0.481×(age at menarche >15 years old)+0.459×(number of miscarriages≥3)+0.416×(clinical stage II)+0.613×(clinical stage III/IV)+0.366×(the treatment method was surgery + chemotherapy) + 0.015×(the treatment method was chemotherapy alone). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the Cox risk prediction model for cervical cancer recurrence constructed was 0.736 (95% CI 0.684 to 0.789), the best prediction threshold was 0.857, the sensitivity was 0.576, and the specificity was 0.810. The accuracy of the Cox risk model constructed by this model was good. From the clinical decision curve, the net benefit value was high and the validity was good.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Patient age, age at menarche, miscarriages, clinical stages, and treatment methods are independent factors affecting cervical cancer recurrence. The Cox proportional hazards prediction model for cervical cancer recurrence constructed in this study can be better used for predicting the risk of cervical cancer recurrence.
Subject(s)
Pregnancy , Humans , Female , Middle Aged , Adolescent , Prognosis , Uterine Cervical Neoplasms/epidemiology , Abortion, Spontaneous , Neoplasm Recurrence, Local/pathology , Proportional Hazards Models , Risk Factors , Retrospective StudiesABSTRACT
Objective:To understand the distribution and epidemiological characteristics of chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) in Hunan Province.Methods:According to the audit methods and evaluation criteria specified by the National Cancer Registration Center, the registration data of CLL reported by 24 tumor registries was included. Through the research method of retrospective analysis, the selected registry data was calculated and analyzed according to the year, administrative division, urban and rural areas, gender and age.Results:A total of 104 newly diagnosed CLL patients were diagnosed in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2015, with an average annual morbidity of 0.39/100, 000. The morbidity in 2014 and 2015 was 0.39/100, 000 and 0.39/100, 000, respectively. The annual average morbidity in Zhuzhou was 0.8/100, 000, which was the highest among municipalities. The annual average morbidity in Kaifu District of Changsha was 1.65/100, 000, which was the highest among district-level administrative divisions. The morbidity of urban was higher than that of rural (Urban vs Rural, P=0.006). The male to female morbidity was 1.7∶1. The cases were mainly concentrated in the 61-70-year-old population, accounting for 33.65% of all cases (35/104). There were 64 patients died of CLL in Hunan Province from 2014 to 2015, and the average annual mortality was 0.24/100, 000. The mortality in 2014 and 2015 was 0.22/100, 000 and 0.26/100, 000, respectively. The average annual mortality in Hengyang was 0.53/100, 000, which was the highest among municipalities. The average annual mortality in Furong District of Changsha was 0.74/100, 000, which was the highest among district-level administrative divisions. The mortality of urban was higher than that of rural but with no significant difference ( P=0.006). The male to female mortality rate was 1.4∶1. The deaths were mainly concentrated in the 71-80-year-old population, accounting for 29.69% of all deaths (19/64). Conclusions:The morbidity of CLL in Hunan Province is much lower than that of European and American populations, and it mainly occurs in the elderly people. It is more common in men. The morbidity of urban is higher than that of rural and morbidity in Zhuzhou is the highest. The death of CLL patients was mainly in middle-aged and elderly population, with more males. The mortality of urban is slightly higher than that of rural and the mortality in Hengyang is the highest.
ABSTRACT
Objective@#To acknowledge the availability and rates of annual transition of outcomes during the progression and regression stages of colorectal cancer (CRC) and related diseases, by pooling global follow-up studies on the natural history of CRC.@*Methods@#Till March, 2017, data was collected through systematic literature review over multiple databases, including PubMed, Embase, Cochrane and Chinese Biology Medicine (CBM) disc. Information regarding the characteristics, classification system of health states, related outcomes and incidence rates on CRC or high-risk adenoma for the surveillance cohorts of the studies, were extracted and summarized. Both Meta and sensitivity analyses were performed on those outcomes if they appeared in more than 3 studies, using the random effects model. Annual transition rate with 95%CI was used to estimate each of the outcomes, Quality of the studies was assessed, using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale.@*Results@#A total of 29 cohort studies were included, with the mean follow-up period as 5.7 years. All studies except one, focused on adenoma-carcinoma pathway and reported the outcome parameters of adenomas by different risk, and some reported the findings on different sizes (n=6) of adenomas. These cohorts were divided into three groups (normal status, with low-risk or high-risk adenoma) according to the status of baseline endoscopic pathologic findings. Their available outcome parameters, corresponding number of involved articles, aggregated sample size and pooled annual transition rates were presented. Six parameters were obtained in the normal cohorts, including those from normal to low-risk adenoma (16 articles, 58 235, 0.030: 0.024-0.037), to high-risk adenoma (17 articles, 62 089, 0.003: 0.002-0.004), to diminutive adenoma (<5 mm, 4 articles, 1 277, 0.021: 0.013-0.029), to small adenoma (6-9 mm, 4 articles, 1 277, 0.006: 0.001-0.010), to large adenoma (≥10 mm, 7 articles, 3 531, 0.002: 0.000-0.003) and to CRC (19 articles, 104 836, 0.000 3: 0.000 2-0.000 5). Three parameters were obtained in low-risk adenoma in cohorts with polypectomy findings, including recurrence (9 articles, 4 788, 0.109: 0.062-0.157) from low-risk adenoma after polypectomy to high-risk adenoma (10 articles, 5 736, 0.009: 0.004-0.013) and to CRC (12 articles, 11 347, 0.000 6: 0.000 4-0.000 8). Three parameters were obtained on high-risk adenoma from cohorts with polypectomy findings, including recurrence (12 articles, 7 030, 0.038: 0.028-0.048) from high-risk adenoma after polypectomy to low-risk adenoma (8 articles, 2 489, 0.133: 0.081-0.185) and CRC (14 articles, 14 899, 0.002: 0.001-0.003). Except for normal to low-risk adenomas, results from the sensitivity analysis for the other parameters showed stable. Of the included studies, two presented incidence rates of CRC in different clinical stages and the another two were focusing on the parameters related to serrated pathway.@*Conclusions@#Globally, follow-up studies reported data on natural history of colorectal cancer is of paucity. Compared to the "adenoma-carcinoma" pathway, transition parameters of the serrated lesion pathway are more limited. This Meta-analysis provided convincing evidence for optimizing the strategies regarding follow-up program on the disease, using the baseline endoscopic findings from global CRC Screening Program. These results also offered strong data-related support for Chinese population- specific interventional model on colorectal cancer.